Russia to Price Oil in Euros in Snub to U.S.

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by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph (Money Edition)

Russia is to start pricing its huge oil and gas exports in euros instead of dollars as part of a stragetic shift to forge closer ties with the European Union.

The Russian central bank has been amassing euros since early 2002, increasing the euro share of its $65 billion (£40 billion) foreign reserves from 10pc to more than 25pc, according to the finance ministry.

The move has set off a chain reaction in the private sector, leading to a fourfold increase in euro deposits in Russian banks this year and sending Russian citizens scrambling to change their stashes of greenbacks into euro notes.

German officials said Chancellor Gerhard Schroder secured agreement for the change-over on oil pricing from Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, while on a trip to Russia this week.

The two leaders have forged a close personal bond and are both keen to check American economic and diplomatic power.

Mr Putin was coy about German media reports on the deal yesterday but acknowledged that Russia was exploring the idea. "We do not rule out that it is possible. That would be interesting for our European partners," he said.

A switch to euro invoicing would not affect the long-term price of oil but it could encourage Middle Eastern exporters to follow suit and have a powerful effect on market psychology at a time when the dollar is already under intense pressure. Russia boasts the world's biggest natural gas reserves and is the number two oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

Yesterday the dollar recovered slightly against the yen and euro, but the IMF and the European Central Bank both warn that America's ballooning current account deficit, now over 5pc of GDP, will lead to further declines.

Oil is seen as so central to the global power structure that the choice of currency used for pricing has acquired almost totemic significance. The switch from pounds to dollars after the Second World War has come to symbolise sterling's demise as a world reserve currency.

If the dollar were ever displaced by the euro, it would lose the enormous freedom it now enjoys in running macro-economic policy. Washington would also forfeit the privilege of exchanging dollar notes for imports, worth an estimated 0.5pc of GDP.

Maxim Shein, from BrokerKreditService in Moscow, said the switch to euros makes sense for Russia since it supplies half of Europe's energy needs. But the move is also part of a global realignment stemming from the Iraq war, which threw Russia, Germany and France together into a new Triple Entente.

"Abandoning the dollar is tantamount to a curtsey to the EU," he said. For now, IMF figures show the dollar remains king, accounting for 68pc of foreign reserves worldwide compared with 13pc for the euro.

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Pretty silly stuff. So Russia is going to check the Euro-Dollar exchange rate and price their products in Euros instead, essentially wasting their time and troubling customers that are outside the EU. For customers they ship to, say China, that will just force the Chinese to make a transaction in the FX market in essence. Oh the US is really hurting from this one. If most of your customers have Euros and want to use them, price it in Euros, but stop the silliness saying this is intended to curb American power.
 

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WildBill

While there's a little more to it than that, I agree that a change from USD to EUR as political statement is a recipe for disaster -- but it's a recipe for disaster for the ultra-soft Euro, which is currently trading at a greatly inflated price relative to the U.S. dollar and other major currencies (and more significantly, relative to gold.)

Syria and Venezuela have also held official committees on the idea of switching to the Euro for oil settlements, and it is not hard to imagine that if the entire oil industry fgoes Euro, that others will follow suit. But the first time a major trade dispute breaks out between the EU and a non-European partner that uses the Euro (especially if it is with an OPEC member state) the Euro price will almost certainly go into a freefall. As is the Euro's current market value is reminiscient of the Internet-driven stock market of the late 90's, being powered more by hype than facts. It would not take much in the way of a European financial or trade crisis to bring it back down to its early doldrums, when it was trading in the high $ 0.80's in U.S. dollars.


Phaedrus
 

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You missed my point. You should price your product in whatever payment method best suits your customer. Since outside Europe the Euro isn't that widely used this is just a troublemaking exercise. I mean think about this, say you are a refinery in Brazil and you are buying oil from Venezuela. They send you a bill in Euros. Do you think they are going to wire you Euros? Hell no, they will go to their dollar account and wire you dollars. They will add a note "hey suckers if you want Euros, ask your bank to get them for you". Its stupid posturing. As long as people around the world want and gladly accept dollars then the dollar will reign supreme. Go ask the guys changing money on the streets in Buenos Aires, in Bangkok, even in Moscow which currency they would rather deal with and 99% of them will say dollars. Until you change that equation moves like this are just silly because the world will still be dealing with dollars when it comes to pricing oil whether the invoice says that or not.
 

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WildBill

I think you might be suprised at what the people on the streets of Bueonos Aires, Bangkok or even Moscow would say given the choice of the dollar or the Euro at the moment.

Most countries do not neccessarily favour the U.S. dollar beause they like it better; they do so because of its ubiquity. But when Saddam Hussein converted Iraq's "Oil for Food" account from dollars to Euros he made a fortune just in the exchange appreciation relative to the dollar. Other leaders took notice, especially among the oil-producing nations.

And yes, if Venezuela were to go to Euros for oil settlement they would tell the Brazilian customer "go get Euros." This is neither a difficult nor expensive process for ex-im authorities around the world, so it's not asking for quite so much of a sacrifice as you might imagine.

Still, in the end it will prove to be folly imho. I don't have much faith in the dollar either, and do not keep most of my savings in it, but having missed the opportunity for a short-term run-up in value of the Euro, given a choice between the two currencies and no other option I'd pick the dollar.


Phaedrus
 

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Saddam and his riches, haha. Well yeah, if you want to be a speculator, fine go choose what makes you money today. The economically correct answer though is to take what you can most easily use. I could start a business and say all bills must be paid with Japanese yen. What would that accomplish? Those that wanted to do business with me enough would go to the trouble of getting the yen, but most would say forget it, too much trouble. When you are dealing with millions its not exactly a problem, getting Euros or dollars is easy, but once you go down the chain to companies in Asia where the Euro isn't found much but the dollar is everywhere, that will be a problem. And I disagree with your belief on the Venezuela issue, they wouldn't take the money and return it, they would be forced to take it. The Brazilian would tell the Venezuelan that the rest of the world deals oil in dollars, I am not changing it for you. If you don't want my money I will go find someone that does. Besides notice how there is a major currency crisis in Venezuela right now, the businesses can't get enough dollars to do their business its not a problem of not getting enough Euros.
 

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posted by WildBill:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
Saddam and his riches, haha.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

We're talking abut multiple billions of dollars in exchange profits ... sort of catches the eye even if the logic is specious. I will say again that I think a broad-based flight to the Euro will prove a bad idea, possibly a catastrophic one, in the long-run ... but there is no denying the basic facts of the matter.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
Well yeah, if you want to be a speculator, fine go choose what makes you money today.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I gamble on sports; how much more speculative can I get?
icon_biggrin.gif
I will admit to having played in the FX market myself, with mixed success (although I did enjoy a major profit by investing in Afghan afghani at the end of the 2002 invasion of Afghanistan, but it's sort of a no-brainer to buy something that has completley collapsed in value due to unrelated circumstances.)

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
The economically correct answer though is to take what you can most easily use.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This is true; again, I think that in the long run the move will bite Russia and anyone else who takes it on the ass.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
I could start a business and say all bills must be paid with Japanese yen. What would that accomplish? Those that wanted to do business with me enough would go to the trouble of getting the yen, but most would say forget it, too much trouble.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Well, there are a number of factors that would effect that. We're talking about the way national ex-im entities manage their trade settlements, not corner stores (not to denigrate any business idea you might have, but I think you see what I'm saying.)

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
When you are dealing with millions its not exactly a problem, getting Euros or dollars is easy, but once you go down the chain to companies in Asia where the Euro isn't found much but the dollar is everywhere, that will be a problem.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The dollar, the Euro, the colon, they are all freely available anywhere in the world thanks to the current state of FX market technology. It is not a geocentric issue.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
And I disagree with your belief on the Venezuela issue, they wouldn't take the money and return it, they would be forced to take it.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

No, they wouldn't. If they wanted settlement in Euros, the Brazilian government would simply exchange U.S. dollars or Brazilian reals or some other currency or asset (it is not unusual for government treasuries to hold distributed currencies and assets btw) for Euros on the market, then send the Venezuelans Euros.

The FX market is the largest, most active, and most liquid market in the world -- it runs 24 hours a day from midnight GMT on Monday to midnight GMT on Saturday and sees over $ 1.5 trillion a day in transactions. That is approximately 300 times the daily volume of the NYSE.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
The Brazilian would tell the Venezuelan that the rest of the world deals oil in dollars, I am not changing it for you. If you don't want my money I will go find someone that does.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Again, we're not talking about you or I having a tizzy at an Amoco station that won't take a cheque, and going across the street to a BP station that will. Ex-im settlements are a completely different universe from this.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
Besides notice how there is a major currency crisis in Venezuela right now, the businesses can't get enough dollars to do their business its not a problem of not getting enough Euros.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

But this is irrelevant to whether or not Venezuela would switch from U.S. dollars to Euros for its oil trading. In fact, given the (imo poorly thought out) glow surrounding the Euro lately the news might actually help the Venezuelan economy in the short term were it enacted -- and let's face it, politicians are all about the short term.


Phaedrus
 

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Wild Bill: "You should price your product in whatever payment method best suits your customer."

yeah, but russia are aiming at a very high percentage of their product (oil) to be sold to the europian market, hence that's what suits their customers at the time being. What percentage of their oil will go to say china or brazil, and how much will go to europe, it's a very logical move.

Of course the good (bad) heroin of Afghanistan (which amounts to something like 90% of the world trade in heroin) will still be traded in dollars as well as the oil reserves in both Iraq and the wider Arabic region, speaks volumes on why some countries fund and wage wars (say the u.s.) and others are currently playing the peacemaker card (say germany, france etc.), because they either lack the means, or, what i think is mostly the case, the right propaganda mechanisms and public support to do so...
 

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